Lousy Investment September 23, 2010 PSW Staff |
jumped over the next few days from below 4 cents to as high as 18 cents. To get an idea what traders were paying, the 500 million shares that are issued and outstanding were worth $7.5 million just a month ago. On September 16, 2010, they were worth $90 million. That's not bad for a company with no revenues since inception in April of 2006, and consistent expenses of $1 million a year. What is particularly interesting is that the company actually released this news story six days earlier, but used the term transgenic silkworms. The company thought that the layperson would better understand “spider-moth”. That word change quadrupled the value of the company seemingly overnight, but reality would soon set in as the stock has already given back half of it's gains.
company released their late quarterly filing, the stock jumped from just over a penny to around 3 cents. Lets take a look at that filing, shall we. First of all, just before it came out, the company disclosed that they fired the accounting firm responsible for their filings, and hired a new one. This in and of itself is rarely a good sign, but what makes this particular situation even more ominous is an unusual disclosure. The companies former accounting firm complained that Kraig Biocraft's internal controls necessary to develop reliable financial statements are not effective because of material
include failure to reconcile all of their consulting agreements in a timely manner, as well as discrepancies with the CEO's employment agreement. What the company has properly disclosed, however, is there only source of funding: dilution. The company issues shares for cash, for services, and in connection with convertible notes. Although the pace of these issuances has slowed over the past couple of years, the amount of shares needed to be issued has increased. These issuances only seem to raise enough cash to operate for a few weeks at a time, one was even for as little as $75 dollars; perhaps a working lunch. As if half a billion shares was not enough to discourage investors; oh yes there will be more, a lot more. The company has a long list of people to pay if tiny incremental achievements are realized from both a market cap perspective and revenue/earnings perspective. All of this is not necessarily unusual for a development stage company, what is unusual, perhaps, is the amount of success these spider moths will have to achieve just for the company to make enough money to sustain such a high share count. It seems almost inevitable that reverse stock splits are to come. Additionally, the founder owns over 300 million shares which is about twice what the current float is. What about the significance of the latest milestone, the company says, "The creation of these transgenics was greeted with much celebration among the scientists and in the corporate office. In my view our accomplishment establishes that we have been on the right track all along. This achievement is a landmark event for the Company. It clears a major hurdle in our path and puts us well ahead of our development schedule.” Fanfare from the scientists working on the project and in the corporate office is not necessarily the same as fanfare from the scientific community. There are two big if's with this success that will impact whether or not the company can begin engaging in the $100 billion technical textiles market, or essentially have to start over. First of all, it is not yet known if these worms are germline stable, meaning they can pass the new DNA on to offspring. The second 'if' is the results of any testing done on the silk itself, and what kind of properties they have achieved. The company plans a conference call to discuss the recent developments, but has yet to provide a date or time. They may need to issue a few shares to raise enough cash for the press release. |
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